Wednesday, February 03, 2010

"Final" numbers put Harmening, Kull in the lead in Subcircuits 3 and 9

Except, of course, that what we're all looking at this afternoon isn't necessarily final -- and that's without even broaching the topic of (*gulp*) recounts.

What Cook County Clerk David Orr points out on his website must be kept in mind: The results now posted may not include "[p]rovisional ballots and late-arriving absentee ballots, which can be received up to two weeks after election day." (Emphasis supplied.) Orr's site cautions that results official results may not be available before the 21-day post-election deadline.

With this significant caveat in mind, it appears that Judge Geary Kull is presently clinging to a razor-thin margin of just 54 votes over Abbey Fishman Romanek in the race for the Otaka vacancy in the 9th Judicial Subcircuit. Romanek has 7,804 suburban votes in the not-final final suburban numbers (185 of 185 suburban precincts reporting) and 3,286 votes from the City of Chicago -- a total of 11,090. Judge Kull has 8,895 votes recorded in the suburban tallies plus 2,249 from the City of Chicago -- a total of 11,144 votes.

In the 3rd Subcircuit, Judge Edward Harmening has opened up a 377 vote lead over Thomas J. Murphy. Murphy received 4,067 suburban votes and 12,073 out of the City of Chicago for a total of 16,140. Harmening received 2,681 votes from the suburbs and 13,386 votes from the City -- a total of 16,517.

While I can't prove it, this much I know for certain: Kull, Romanek, Harmening and Murphy -- and their respective spouses and children and campaign managers -- have each heard from dozens, and probably hundreds, of well-wishers today... and some of these people expressing concern today did not vote yesterday. No matter what they're saying now.


Anonymous said...

If my calculations are correct, of the twenty contested appellate and trial court races, only four races were won by a candidate that was not listed first on the ballot.

Michael Strom said...

I don't see how that can be right. In my subcircuit (9th), unless Fishman Romanek pulls ahead of Kull, we had 3 of 11 races won by candidates lower than the top ballot line: Epstein, Puchinski & Kull. If there are 9 other contested races, only one was carried by someone lower than top line?

Albert said...

Preliminary analysis of the 2010 countywide contests indicates a first-position value of 7.8 percentage points. This is higher than in past decades but actually quite consistent with the past few primaries. In areas like the 9th, though, the effect is much, much smaller. Better-educated, more literate voters are less likely to show a position preference.

Michael Strom said...

I retract my skepticism -- 16 of 20 top ballot line winners it is. As I recall, the percentage was much lower in 2008.

Albert said...

Correct on both counts. Including the lone Republican contest, it's 17 of 21, compared to 16 of 30 in 2008. But the value of the first position was only marginally lower in 2008 (7.2 percentage points of vote, compared to 7.8 percentage points in 2010). More first-ballot candidates won this year because factors other than ballot position were relatively less influential in determining winners.