Geary W. Kull declared the winner in race for 9th Subcircuit Otaka vacancy

Six weeks after the polls closed, the race for the Otaka vacancy in the 9th Subcircuit is finally over.

In an article appearing on the Evanston Review website, Bob Seidenberg reports that Abbey Fishman Romanek has dropped her bid for a full recount in that race. Judge Geary W. Kull, who currently holds the countywide Dolan vacancy pursuant to Supreme Court appointment, has been declared the winner in the race for the 9th Subcircuit seat. The margin of victory was only 48 votes.

Seidenberg writes that Kull "won even though two local political heavyweights, U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky, D-9th, and State Sen. Jeff Schoenberg, D-9th, backed Fishman Romanek, an attorney for 22 years and a past contributor to Schakowsky and other progressive Democratic candidates." Fishman Romanek was also supported by the 49th Ward Organization in Chicago.

For her part, according to Seidenberg's article, Fishman Romanek "stressed that her challenge was not based on any animosity toward" Judge Kull. Seidenberg quotes Fishman Romanek as professing great respect for Judge Kull. "I look forward to working with him in the future," Fishman Romanek told Seidenberg.

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Hat tip: Bonnie McGrath.

Dr. Klumpp analyzes the judicial primary results

A recognizable Irish surname conferred a significant advantage on Cook County judicial candidates in the primary campaign just concluded but, according to Albert J. Klumpp, PhD, a Research Analyst with the Chicago firm of McDermott Will & Emery LLP, female candidates and candidates slated by the Cook County Democratic party did not receive the same advantage as similar candidates have in past campaigns.

Dr. Klumpp has analyzed various components that seem to provide advantages to judicial candidates in the voting booth. In the following table, adapted from a table sent to me by Dr. Klumpp (meaning that any errors are mine, not his), the "Evaluations/Endorsements" component refers to favorable evaluations by both the Chicago Bar Association and the Chicago Council of Lawyers and a sweep of endorsements made by the Chicago Tribune and Chicago Sun-Times. Note, too, that the 2010 figures apply to the nine contested countywide judicial contests in the Democratic Primary, including the three races for the Appellate Court.

Variable

1986- 2008

2002- 2008

2008

2010

Female

16.0

17.0

23.3

6.3

Irish name

9.7

9.1

10.5

10.4

Top ballot position

4.3

8.2

7.2

7.8

Evaluations/Endorsements

9.9

11.9

12.7

11.2

Democratic slating

11.0

11.9

9.4

6.6

The analysis shows a dramatic fall-off in the advantage formerly enjoyed by female candidates. "Where did the gender vote go?" Klumpp asked in an email. He supplies a possible answer: "All in all, the results look like they came from an angry male electorate."

There are other factors that Dr. Klumpp tracks in his ongoing research into judicial elections. One factor that he tracks as influencing outcomes is campaign spending. This analysis takes longer to complete, however, because campaign spending disclosures are not yet complete. Dr. Klumpp believes that campaign spending is more influential in subcircuit elections than in the elections countywide but, in terms of these other factors, as a preliminary conclusion, Dr. Klumpp would agree that the same tendencies seen in countywide races this year seem to apply in the subcircuits as well.

Dr. Klumpp's most recent article on the subject of judicial elections is in the January 2010 issue of the CBA Record, "What Influences the Voters?"

Recount planned in race for Otaka vacancy

The Evanston Review is reporting that Abbey Fishman-Romanek has filed a request with the office of Cook County Clerk David Orr seeking a recount of the votes cast in the race for the Otaka vacancy.

Bob Seidenberg reports for the Evanston Review that Judge Geary Kull led Fishman-Romanek by only 48 votes in final figures released by the Cook County Clerk. Seidenberg writes that this "race drew attention for its fierce conflict in political loyalties. Fishman-Romanek had received the backing of two Evanston Democratic Party leaders, U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky and State Sen. and Evanston Township Democratic Committeeman Jeff Schoenberg. Kull, meanwhile, a longtime Evanston youth baseball coach, had received strong support in his base community."

According to Seidenberg's article, the Cook County Clerk's office had not set any date, as of Friday, to address the recount request. Seidenberg's article also does not specify the precincts in which Fishman-Romanek is seeking a recount. If readers have information to pass along in this regard, please leave a comment or send me an email.

Looking at the results of the Cook County judicial primaries

Democratic Party Endorsements. As has been pointed out elsewhere, only one Appellate Court candidate slated by the Cook County Democratic Party, Chancery Judge James R. Epstein, won his primary race.

But party-endorsed candidates fared much better in Circuit Court races: In the eight countywide races, two slated candidates were unopposed (Daniel J. Gallagher in the McCarthy vacancy and Thomas V. Lyons in the O'Malley vacancy). In the other six races, slated candidates won in four (William H. Hooks in the Berland vacancy, Raymond W. Mitchell in the Hayes vacancy, John P. Callahan, Jr. in the Kelley vacancy, and Sandra Ramos in the Riley vacancy).

That coveted first ballot position seems to have been as important as ever this year -- and in four of the six countywide races where a ballot lottery was necessary, the slated candidate won the lottery. The only slated candidates who did not win their respective ballot lotteries also fell short in their bids for nomination. (Terry MacCarthy was not the slated candidate for the Bronstein vacancy, but had the top ballot spot and won his race; Susan Kennedy Sullivan was not slated for the Dolan vacancy, but had the top ballot spot and won her race.)

Interestingly, two of this year's slated candidates, Diann K. Marsalek and Sandra Ramos, were "pre-endorsed" for vacancies that never opened up in 2008. There were four such pre-approved candidates in that year -- but one, Judge Dennis J. Burke, ran against the Democratic Party's candidate and won, and another, Stephen James Connolly, became an associate judge in 2009. Marsalek did not win the ballot lottery in her race; Ramos did. Ramos won her primary race.

So... which was more important... the top ballot spot... or party slating?

How appointed judges fared. Sitting judges trying to hold the seats to which they had been appointed by the Illinois Supreme Court fared fairly well in 2010.

Judge Thaddeus L. Wilson (top ballot position) held the Coleman vacancy in the 1st Judicial Subcircuit. In the 3rd Subcircuit, each of the appointed judges won: Allen F. Murphy (Carmody vacancy, top ballot position), Edward S. Harmening (Darcy vacancy, top ballot position), and Daniel Malone ("A" vacancy, top ballot position). In the 15th Subcircuit, Judge George F. Scully (top ballot position) held the Panichi vacancy and Judge John C. Griffin (top ballot position) held the Phelan vacancy.

On the other hand, despite having the top ballot spot, Judge Steven J. Fruth was not able to hold onto the Riley vacancy in the 11th Judicial Subcircuit. In the 9th Subcircuit, neither Judge Yehuda Lebovits (Otaka vacancy) nor Judge Michael Ian Bender were able to hold their seats.

But analyzing these outcomes gets complicated: Judge Geary Kull was appointed to the countywide Kelley vacancy. Passed over by the Democratic Party at slating time, Kull filed for the 9th Subcircuit Otaka vacancy instead. (As of this morning, Judge Kull's margin over Abbey Fishman Romanek is 49 votes -- but 'official' results won't be released until next week.) There were 13 candidates at one time in the 11th Subcircuit race; eleven were on the final ballot, including Judge Pamela M. Leeming, who was appointed to the countywide McCarthy vacancy on October 30 -- after she'd filed in the 11th.

Still... holding a judicial position by Supreme Court appointment seemed to confer a decided advantage in this primary season: Every countywide candidate who was slated and already serving as a judge won their primary race.

Another interesting note: This year, two candidates were "pre-endorsed" by the Democratic Party. One, Assistant Public Defender Daniel J. Gallagher, was pressed into service when the countywide McCarthy vacancy opened up. The other, Associate Judge Mathias W. Delort, will presumably have first call for slating in 2012. With his significant judicial experience, if this year's pattern holds, he should be considered a very strong contender at that time.

Bar Association evaluations. Not every candidate who won in the primary was rated recommended or qualified by each of the several bar associations that investigate judicial candidate credentials. "Glass half full" folks will note that, in several races, nearly every candidate received positive ratings from the bar groups. "Glass half empty" folks will focus on races like the race for the Steele vacancy in the 1st Subcircuit where no candidate received positive ratings from every bar group. Jesse Outlaw was the only candidate in that five candidate race who received more positive evaluations than negative ones.

I line up with the "glass half full" folks. After the primary, Joyce Williams, who coordinates candidate evaluations for the Alliance of Bar Associations for Judicial Screening, sent me an email in which she noted, "None of the seventeen candidates that bypassed the Alliance's judicial evaluation process won in their respective races." Even unopposed candidates submitted their credentials to peer review (and most fared very well). Put it this way: Every single judicial primary race was won by a candidate who received a qualified or recommended rating from at least one bar association.

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Related: Acknowledgments and Archives

"Final" numbers put Harmening, Kull in the lead in Subcircuits 3 and 9

Except, of course, that what we're all looking at this afternoon isn't necessarily final -- and that's without even broaching the topic of (*gulp*) recounts.

What Cook County Clerk David Orr points out on his website must be kept in mind: The results now posted may not include "[p]rovisional ballots and late-arriving absentee ballots, which can be received up to two weeks after election day." (Emphasis supplied.) Orr's site cautions that results official results may not be available before the 21-day post-election deadline.

With this significant caveat in mind, it appears that Judge Geary Kull is presently clinging to a razor-thin margin of just 54 votes over Abbey Fishman Romanek in the race for the Otaka vacancy in the 9th Judicial Subcircuit. Romanek has 7,804 suburban votes in the not-final final suburban numbers (185 of 185 suburban precincts reporting) and 3,286 votes from the City of Chicago -- a total of 11,090. Judge Kull has 8,895 votes recorded in the suburban tallies plus 2,249 from the City of Chicago -- a total of 11,144 votes.

In the 3rd Subcircuit, Judge Edward Harmening has opened up a 377 vote lead over Thomas J. Murphy. Murphy received 4,067 suburban votes and 12,073 out of the City of Chicago for a total of 16,140. Harmening received 2,681 votes from the suburbs and 13,386 votes from the City -- a total of 16,517.

While I can't prove it, this much I know for certain: Kull, Romanek, Harmening and Murphy -- and their respective spouses and children and campaign managers -- have each heard from dozens, and probably hundreds, of well-wishers today... and some of these people expressing concern today did not vote yesterday. No matter what they're saying now.

Cook County PD's celebrate judicial primary wins

From the Cook County Public Defenders Blog:

The local is very proud to announce (unofficially) that several of its members have been elected to judical seats in the primary election held on February 2, 2010. In addition, two former members of this local are also winners in the election.

Mark Levitt – winner of the Democratic primary in the 4th Judicial Subcircuit, Lake County. Mark has been an assistant Cook County public defender for almost 20 years and was lead counsel in the ”Browns Chicken” case. Mark will face a Republican challenger in the general election.

Terry MacCarthy - a supervisor and former member of the local won Full Circuit Bronstein seat in the primary. He has no Republican challenger in the general election.

Daniel Gallagher - Dan, an assistant at 26th Street was uncontested in the primary and will face a Republican challenger in the fall.

Ann Finley Collins - A member of the Homicide Task Force, won in a race with many qualified challengers including two sitting judges. Ann will not have a challenger in the general election.

Judge Jim Epstein – a former public defender who helped organize the local twenty years ago has won a seat on the 1st District Appellate court (McNulty vacancy).

Judge Geary Kull - another former public defender, was in a very heated race and it still might be too close to call because he has a slim lead of abut 80 votes based on the vote totals available as of 2/3/10 at / 8:00 a.m.

As of about 12:30pm, there's nothing new to report on either the race for the 9th Subcircuit Otaka vacancy or the 3rd Subcircuit Darcy vacancy.

ISBA posts judicial results outside of Cook County

My thanks to Christopher Bonjean, Director of Member Communications for the Illinois State Bar Association, for this link to judicial results outside of Cook County. Winners are listed in bold type -- and each candidate is listed alongside his or her ISBA rating. If you've come here looking to find out how judicial elections turned out in Will County or Kane County or somewhere other than Cook, check out the ISBA site.

Update on 9th Subcircuit Otaka race

Most of the other judicial contests in Cook County were settled at a fairly decent hour yesterday (scroll down the page for results) but one that seemed to close to call was the race for the Otaka vacancy in the 9th Subcircuit. When last seen, Judge Geary W. Kull had only a 250 vote margin over Abbey Fishman Romanek.

It's even closer now.

Thanks to a thousand vote margin in the City (3,232 to 2,213) Romanek has closed the gap to only 83 votes. The City figures are based on 107 out of 110 precincts (92.97%). Meanwhile, the suburban numbers favored Kull -- 8,708 to 7,606 -- with 182 of 185 precincts reporting.

These add up (and I used a spreadsheet, not pencil and paper) to Kull - 10,921 to Romanek - 10,838.

Perhaps some better informed person can leave a comment today with updated information.

If it becomes available today.

Update on 3rd Subcircuit Darcy race

Most of the other judicial contests in Cook County were settled at a fairly decent hour yesterday (scroll down the page for results) but, when last I checked yesterday, only 19 votes separated Judge Edward Harmening from his closest challenger, Thomas J. Murphy.

In the gray light of morning, the numbers are still close, but Judge Harmening has emerged with a 223 vote lead. This in only "comfortable" in the sense that (as Gov. Quinn said last evening... or was it early this morning?) one vote up is a "landslide."

As with the gubernatorial primaries, not all the votes are counted in this race. Still, 86 of 88 suburban precincts have checked in, with Murphy besting Harmening outside the City limits, 3,957 to 2,632. Inside the City, however, with 96.43% of the votes counted (243 out of 252 precincts), Harmening leads Murphy 13,413 to 11,865.

The one and only Republican judicial primary result

Maureen Masterson Pulia is the apparent winner tonight of the Republican nomination for the countywide McCarthy vacancy. Pulia beat Michaela Nolan Ryan by a little more than 5,000 vote margin for the right to face Assistant Public Defender Daniel J. Gallagher in November.

Countywide Circuit Court roundup

Berland Vacancy -- Judge William H. Hooks tallies big numbers in holding this seat. He was appointed to this vacancy by the Illinois Supreme Court in 2008. He was endorsed by the Cook County Democratic Party.

Bronstein Vacancy -- Terry MacCarthy beat Sharon Finegan Patterson to win this race. Diann K. Marsalek, who was slated by the Cook County Democratic Party, finished third.

Dolan Vacancy -- Susan Kennedy Sullivan appears to be maintaining, and even extending, her slim lead over the Cook County Democratic Party's slated candidate, Linda J. Pauel. Earlier this evening, with 86.51% of the City vote and 91% of the suburban vote counted, Sullivan had a 3,468 vote lead. Now, with 92.97% of the City vote in and 95% of the suburban vote in, Sullivan has 141,704 votes, Pauel has 138,043 -- a margin of 3,661 votes.

Hayes Vacancy -- Judge Raymond W. Mitchell will hold this seat.

Kelley Vacancy -- Judge John Patrick Callahan, Jr. has a comfortable margin over his only challenger, Joanne Fehn.

Riley Vacancy -- Slated candidate Sandra G. Ramos has a roughly 18,000 vote margin over nearest challenger Russell William Hartigan. Tracey J. Stokes ran third in this seven-person race.

First District Appellate Court results

In the race for the McNulty vacancy, Judge James R. Epstein has emerged the apparent victor. Judge Aurelia Pucinski, the former Circuit Court Clerk, scored a big victory in her bid for the O'Malley vacancy, while Judge Mary Katherine Rochford has taken the race for the South vacancy.

Jones, Scully and Griffin win in the 15th Subcircuit

Olympia Fields Mayor Linzey D. Jones has won the race for Lipinski vacancy in Cook County's 15th Judicial Subcircuit. Pat Flanagan and Nicholas W. Karas appear to have placed second and third, respectively, in this crowded field.

Judge George F. Scully has held onto the Panichi vacancy. He was appointed to this vacancy by the Illinois Supreme Court and he was able to best a field that included Mary Therese Quinn, Michael T. Huguelet, and Peter A. Fera.

Finally, Judge John C. Griffin, who was appointed to the Phelan vacancy by the Illinois Supreme Court, will remain on the bench. Griffin has turned back challenges tonight from Thomas "TJ" Somer, Mary Beth Kent Duffy, Carl Evans, Jr., and Nichole C. Patton.

Meanwhile, on the South Side

One of the three races in Cook County's 3rd Judicial Subcircuit looks extremely close: Only 19 votes separate Judge Edward Harmening from Thomas J. Murphy in the race for the Darcy vacancy. With 82 of 88 suburban precincts counted and 231 out of 252 City precincts reporting, Harmening has 14,981 votes while Murphy has 14,962 votes.

The other two races in the Third Subcircuit are not as close.

Judge Allen F. Murphy seems destined to hold onto the Carmody vacancy. Thomas G. O'Brien won the suburban part of the subcircuit, but only by a few hundred votes. Judge Murphy's margin in city precincts (with 91.67% of the votes counted) is about 5,400 votes.

Judge Daniel Malone appears to have won comfortably in his bid to hold the seat to which the Supreme Court appointed him, in the "A" vacancy.

Wilson, Oden-Johnson apparent winners in 1st Subcircuit

Judge Thaddeus Wilson will apparently hold onto the Coleman vacancy in Cook County's 1st Judicial Subcircuit, the seat to which he was appointed by the Illinois Supreme Court.

Sharon Oden-Johnson is the apparent winner in the other race, for the Steele vacancy, besting Jesse Outlaw, who had the endorsement of the Chicago Sun-Times, and Michelle Hugghis Flagg, who had the nod from the Chicago Tribune. Oden-Johnson received the endorsement of the Chicago Defender and a comment was left on this blog saying she'd been endorsed by SEIU Local 73, Congressman Danny Davis, Operation PUSH, Cook County Board President Todd Stroger, Cook County Clerk of Court Dorothy Brown, 6th Ward Alderman Freddrenna Lyle, 8th Ward Alderman Michelle Harris, 17th Ward Alderman Latasha R. Thomas, Candidate for Illinois Treasurer Robin Kelly, and Secretary of State Jessie White.

9th Subcircuit results updated -- Bernstein, Kull hold narrow leads... for now

Only 1456 votes separate Steven James "Steve" Bernstein, who is leading in the race for the 9th Subcircuit "A" vacancy, and Mary S. Trew. The totals are small, 9,948 to 8,492, but the percentages are high -- 90.91% of the City vote totaled at last look and about 94% of the suburban vote.

Judge Michael Ian Bender is running third at this juncture, with 7,915 votes.

In the race for the Otaka vacancy, we have a genuine nail-biter. Judge Geary W. Kull has a slim 250 vote lead, with 10,386 votes to Abbey Fishman Romanek's 10,136. Here, too, 90.91% of the City vote has been counted, as has about 94% of the suburban vote.

Judge Yehuda Lebovits is running third in this race.

Ramos the apparent winner in the race for the countywide Riley vacancy

I've been reporting all evening that Russell W. Hartigan was holding a lead over slated candidate Sandra G. Ramos in the race for the countywide Riley vacancy. The latest suburban totals have Hartigan with 48,076 votes to 43,308 for Ramos. But with 87.87% of the City vote counted, Ramos leads Hartigan 69,653 to 48,348.

Tracey J. Stokes seems destined to finish third, but her City totals were very strong: She's received 42,498 votes in the City of Chicago so far.

Cliffhanger in the Dolan vacancy

The surprise of the evening so far: Susan Kennedy Sullivan's early lead over slated candidate Linda J. Pauel is holding up.

With 86.51% of the City vote and 91% of the suburban vote counted, Sullivan has a 3,468 vote lead. Sullivan has 131,911 votes, Pauel has 128,443.

This race won't be over for awhile.

City results! And a projected winner in the 11th Subcircuit

My thanks to Kulmeet Galhotra for providing me with a much better link into the Chicago Board of Elections website. It's much better because it returns actual numbers.

Mr. Galhotra called the 11th Subcircuit race for Ann Finley Collins on Facebook in the last few minutes. Adding Collins' City votes (which, actually, Maritza A. Martinez seems to have won... with 92.73% of the City vote counted) to Collins' suburban totals, it sure looks as if he's right.

More in a few moments.

3rd Subcircuit suburban results

I keep saying suburban results because the City site is not showing ANY results in judicial races yet -- even though someone said on CLTV ahile ago that 70% of the Chicago vote was in.

Anyway, in the race for the Carmody vacancy, with 86% of the suburban precincts reporting, Thomas G. O'Brien leads Judge Allen F. Murphy, who was appointed to this vacancy by the Illinois Supreme Court. The margin, however, is only 290 votes -- and there are only 88 suburban precincts in the 3rd Subcircuit (76 counted so far).

In the Darcy vacancy, Thomas J. Murphy has a slightly larger lead over Judge Edward Harmening (1169 votes) -- but, again, consider that this is just a small piece of the overall picture.

Judge Daniel Malone leads in the race for the "A" vacancy. His nearest competitor in the race at this point is Mary McNamara.