All Cook County judicial retention candidates appear to have been retained

The Cook County electorate was not as generous, perhaps, as in other years, and I totally understand any retention candidate reaching for the Maalox, a Xanax, or perhaps a beaker of strong drink, when the candidate's favorable numbers drop below 70% in the course of watching the returns -- and several candidates will wind up below that line when all is said and done.

On the other hand, a 65% yes vote is a win. Anything -- and I mean anything -- north of 60% is good for another six years on the bench. It would be a great comfort, and perhaps a great honor, to get 80% of the vote, but 60.0000000001% is no less a win.

Based on numbers available from the Cook County Clerk and the Chicago Board of Elections this morning, there are a few candidates close to the 60% ledge, but no one who has sailed over. In declining order of peril, according to my calculations of the data available, are:

• Tiesha L. Smith - who had a 'yes' vote in the City of only 57.90% - but, overall, stands at 61.7939% (a total of 651,775 yes votes against 402,982 no votes);


• Ursula Walowski -- who also polled under 60% in the City -- 55.55% -- but, overall, stands at 62.1204% (680,959 yes vs. 415,234 no votes); and


• Lorraine Mary Murphy -- the only other retention candidate to drop below 60% in City returns -- 58.35% -- but, overall, stands at 63.1097% (679,271 yes votes vs. 397,063 noes).

There were four candidates who wound up between 60 and 61% in City returns, Maritza Martinez, Robert D. Kuzas, Megan E. Goldish, and Thomas J. Byrne -- but all four had better suburban numbers, so that their overall favorable percentages are at 65% or above. I did not see any candidate fall below 60% in suburban returns; most were at 70% or better.

Now... in theory... uncounted VBM ballots could turn the tide against one or more of these candidates. But -- not picking on anyone here -- just using an example -- if 31,000 VBM ballots were found that said no to Tiesha Smith and none that said yes, she would still cling to a total of just more than 60%. In other words, these are large numbers, and it will take large numbers to move them significantly. We will have to wait, of course -- we lawyers are a cautious bunch -- but it sure looks like all Cook County judicial retention candidates have indeed been retained.