Dropping some numbers from the Cook County primary

Anita Alvarez won the Democratic nomination for Cook County State's Attorney and female candidates won most of the contested judicial primaries -- but not all of them.

In the marquee match-up at the top of the ballot, Favorite Son Barack Obama won 72.80% of the City vote -- while the once-presumptive nominee, Hillary Clinton, could grab only 25.29%. Senator Clinton did better in suburban Cook County -- but she still received only 34.82% of the vote, to Obama's 63.23%. On the other hand, as Abdon M. Pallasch pointed out in a February 11, 2008 article in the Chicago Sun-Times, Clinton carried a number of wards on the City's Northwest and Southwest Sides -- in wards whose committeemen claimed to support Obama over Clinton and 38th Ward Alderman Tom Allen over Alvarez.

It's tempting to generalize from the Alvarez victory, the concentrated pockets of support for Hillary Clinton, and the success of so many female judicial candidates that 2008 was yet another "Year of the Woman."

But it wasn't really the same voters who chose between Senators Obama and Clinton, selected Anita Alvarez, or voted for the judges: There's a drop-off as voters go down the ballot. Just over a million people voted for President in the recent Democratic Primary in Cook County (1,072,357 if you're being precise), but only about 88% of them voted for State's Attorney -- 944,269 in all, or 128,088 fewer.

One out of four Democratic primary voters left the booth before reaching the first of the countywide judicial races: Only 810,588 people voted in the Disko vacancy -- 261,769 fewer than the number that voted for President (75.6%). Only 71.6% of the voters who made a selection in the presidential contest voted in the Thomas vacancy, the last of the countywide vacancies. It wasn't a straightline dropoff down the judicial ballot... but it was close. Here are the percentages of presidential voters who voted in each of the countywide judicial contests, in ballot order:

Disko vacancy -- 75.6%

Glowacki vacancy -- 75.7%

Healy vacancy -- 73.8%

Keehan vacany -- 74.1%

Lott vacancy -- 74.7%

Montelione vacancy -- 72.8%

Murphy vacancy -- 69.4%

Nowicki vacancy -- 72.1%

Thomas vacancy -- 71.6%

The dropoff percentages weren't exact, but they were pretty close whether one looks at City-only or suburb-only numbers. For example, in the suburbs, 89.3% of presidential voters also voted for State's Attorney, 75.7% for the Disko vacancy, and 73.1% for the Thomas vacancy. In the City, 87% of the presidential voters made a choice in the race for State's attorney, 75.5% in the race for the Disko vacancy, and 70.5% in the race for the Thomas vacancy.

Oddly, it does not seem to make much difference whether the ward is solid performer for the regular Democratic Party or whether it strikes an independent pose.

Thus, in the 8th Ward, where 21,065 people voted for President (almost all of them -- more than 95% -- voting for Barack Obama), only 91% of them stayed around to vote for State's Attorney (this was Ald. Brookins' best wards, second only to his own 21st Ward). The dropoff was not as precipitous as it was countywide, but even so, by the time 8th Ward voters reached the Disko vacancy, only 80% remained. Only 76% of the voters who voted for President voted in the Thomas vacancy; only 75.7% of the presidential voters made a choice in the 1st Subcircuit Turkington vacancy.

Ald. Gene Schulter was unopposed in his bid to remain Committeeman of the 47th Ward. Diana L. Kenworthy, who won the race for the Morrissey vacancy in the 10th Subcircuit, received strong support from the 47th Ward Democratic Organization. But the dropoff figures were actually lower than average: Only 84.8% of the presidential voters made a selection in the State's Attorney's race, 71.8% in the race for the Disko vacancy, 66.9% in the Thomas vacancy -- and only 56.6% in the Morrissey vacancy. (The subcircuit figures are a little lower because a few precincts of the 47th Ward are in the 6th Subcircuit.)

Ralph Capparelli, the long-time Committeeman of the 41st Ward, lost his bid to hold his post (losing to Mary O'Connor), so it should hardly be considered an organization stronghold -- but the dropoff figures in the 41st Ward were in line with (and even a little less than) the countywide averages: 93.6% of presidential voters made a choice in the race for State's Attorney, 76.1% in the Disko vacancy, 72.6% for the Thomas vacancy, and between 65.9% and 61.9% in the three 10th Subcircuit races -- the high figure coming also in the race for the Morrissey vacancy, where 41st Ward resident John Mulroe received very strong support.

Lakefront wards also conformed to this pattern. Tom Tunney's 44th Ward underperformed the averages: Only 76.6% of presidential voters made selections in the State's Attorney's race, only 64% in the Disko vacancy, and only 57.9% in the Thomas vacancy. More people actually voted in the 8th Subcircuit race in the 44th Ward than in some of the county races: 8,878 people, or only 62.7% of the presidential voters. Carol Ronen's 48th Ward underperformed a little less: 83.5% of presidential voters expressed their choice in the State's Attorney's race, 69.8% in the Disko vacany, and 63% in the Thomas vacancy. Most of the 48th Ward is in the 8th Subcircuit -- but not all -- which is why only 56% of 48th Ward presidential voters made choices in the 8th Subcircuit race.

Here's the unhappy bottom line for candidates making direct mail buys of primary voting lists: The mailing piece will be wasted on at least one of four recipients, and maybe three of every 10.

When time permits, I hope to go back to prior elections to see how this year's dropoffs compare with those in prior years. Coming sooner: Conclusions that others have drawn from this year's numbers.