It's official: Fallon wins in 12; Mahoney retained

The votes are all counted, finally, and, finally, we can say: The "Red Mirage" was real.

No... wait... we can't say that. Mirages, by definition aren't real. Perhaps, instead, we could say the Red Mirage Phenomenon played out as prophesied.

The national pollsters messed up again in 2020. Not as bad, perhaps, as 2016 -- this time, the candidate predicted by the pollsters to win did in fact win -- but there was no landslide, though increasingly giddy pundits were making more and more extravagant promises in this regard as Election Day drew ever closer. But the vast majority of talking heads all cautioned that, on Election Night, it would appear that Trump had won, or was on his way to winning, a second term because Trump voters were going to the polls in person -- and Democrats were voting by mail. The vote by mail ballots (VBM ballots) would, ultimately, they said, flip the script.

Then came Election Night and all the pundits forgot about what they had said about mirages and began plotzing all over national TV....

The VBM effect was particularly strong in True Blue Illinois. A lot of races seemed to be heading for Republican wins as Tuesday, November 3 turned into Wednesday, November 4. Two Cook County judicial races---the only two contested Cook County judicial races---were among those impacted by the VBM wave.

Appointed Judge Patricia M. Fallon (pictured at right) seemed likely to have lost her seat as the in-person votes were posted. The gap seemed too large to close. Then, as VBM ballots were tabulated, the gap grew smaller. And then smaller still. Eventually, Fallon eked out a lead -- and, now, according to official results revealed today, has eked out a win, by 502 votes, 82,976 to 82,474.

Meanwhile, in the 13th Subcircuit, which looked like a cliffhanger on Election Night, Susanne Michele Groebner has won a decisive victory, with a better than 14,000 vote margin.

VBM ballots do not appear to have flipped any retention races. Judge John J. Mahoney was bobbing at or near the 60% mark on Election Night, dipping below 60% in City returns though faring better in the suburbs, and his fortunes seemed to ebb and flow with each new release of totals. In today's final figures, though, Mahoney's "yes" percentage was 60.13%, representing a slight upturn in his favorable numbers since I'd last reported them.

In other closely watched retention races, Judge Michael P. Toomin, though dumped by the Cook County Democratic Party and targeted for defeat by the Judicial Accountability PAC, was retained with 61.67% "yes" votes, according to today's final figures. Judge Patricia Manila Martin, who told evaluating bar groups that she would be retiring, was nevertheless retained with 62.16% of voters agreeing that she should be retained in office. Only two judges were actually defeated for retention, Mauricio Araujo, who finished with a "yes" vote of only 48.14%, and Jackie Marie Portman-Brown, who finished with a "yes" vote of 59.32%. Both had been assigned to administrative duties by the Executive Committee of the Cook County Circuit Court prior to the election; Araujo was actually brought before the Illinois Courts Commission on misconduct charges during the election cycle, quitting before the Commission could determine what sanction would be entered against him.

I have suggested now, on a couple of occasions, that the electorate this year may have been unusually sour and that this was reflected in lower than usual favorable percentages for all retention judges. After perusing the final figures, however, it may be necessary to revisit this conclusion. Five judges, all female, did top the 80% favorable mark in this election, Donna L. Cooper, Debra B. Walker, Cynthia Y. Cobbs, Maritza Martinez, and Bridget Anne Mitchell. Judge Walker seems to have led the pack with an 80.59% "yes" vote. In 2018, there were eight retention judge candidates (also all female) who bested the 80% mark. I think I'll wait for Dr. Klumpp's opinion as to whether this difference is significant.