This primary will likely provide a good test of the strength of the Cook County Democratic Party... and an opportunity for judicial candidates?

Not that I'm predicting the future, really, because I can't.

If I could really predict the future, I'd pick the winning numbers in the Powerball or Mega Millions and be done with all this.

But I think I can spot trends... and I think I can posit possible outcomes based on the observed trend lines.

Getting specific, I think there are going to be spirited contests on the Democratic primary ballot next year that should enhance turnout.

Turnout is always greater in presidential years, but, at the national level, the Democratic Party is going to do its darndest to make certain that the presidential primary season is anything but interesting. The Democratic National Convention will be in Chicago next year and the tourist areas will be spruced up, and the hotels and restaurants will be eager to welcome conventioneers, but the convention itself should... if all goes according to plan... be so boring that even C-Span will not be interested in covering it.

Of course, that was probably the original plan heading into 1968, too. (Remember, LBJ did not announce that he was not seeking renomination until March 31, 1968.)

But, whatever. The Democratic Party's idea is to make the renomination of Biden and Harris so mundane that it will be easy to keep the nation's focus on the Republicans and their expected renomination of former President Trump. (As the national Republicans, being apparently both stupid and obliging, seem -- at this point -- frightfully willing to do.)

I've read that religious observance has fallen off nationally, and more among Democrats than Republicans, but I believe Democratic Party leaders do pray, and pray fervently, for the continued good health of Donald John Trump: So long as he lives, no troublesome, potentially divisive, substantive issue can ever hope to fracture the enormous coalition of those terrified by the existential threat of Trump, TRUMP, TRUMP!

Of course, all of this historical insight and sophisticated punditry is wasted on many FWIW readers, who only want to know how (to use the phrase employed by Horace Rumpole's creator, Sir John Mortimer) to get their bottoms on the bench.

So let's put it this way: Low turnout elections favor slated candidates in down-ballot races; higher turnouts create opportunities for non-slated candidates. Even if the presidential primary is a snoozefest, there will be heated primary contests for Cook County State's Attorney, Clerk of the Circuit Court, and the Illinois Supreme Court. These contests, and the annoying TV commercials that will bombard us in these races, will bring some people to the polls who do not ordinarily come out for primaries.

The State's Attorney's race, in particular, will increase turnout.

The battle lines were drawn at last week's slating meeting. This Tweet from Capitol Fax anticipates the tone of the coming race:

‘Establishment candidate’ slated by establishment over defiant Dem with Republican ties https://t.co/iQtRJMCUsy

— Capitol Fax (@capitolfax) August 16, 2023

I don't take sides on this site.

But I can report that the Cook County Democratic Party did not suspect Eileen O'Neill Burke of any "Republican ties" when it slated her for the Appellate Court in 2015 (picking her instead of a Circuit Court judge already serving on the Supreme Court by appointment).

Of course, in the coming race, one or more mischievous consultants will persuade one or more gullible multi-millionaires, rich people with undeniable Republican ties, to pour huge amounts of money into TV commercials attacking O'Neill Burke's primary opponent, Clayton Harris III (Gov. Rod Blagojevich's last Chief of Staff) as the Second Coming of Kim Foxx. Whether Harris is, or is not, aligned with Foxx on every issue will be unimportant: Every commercial attacking Harris will further the narrative that O'Neill Burke is nothing more than a Republican in Democratic clothing. Remember what I said about stupid and obliging Republicans?

The millionaires would get a better return on their forthcoming investment by just giving me their money, even if I did nothing more with it than burn it this winter to keep warm. But there's no helping some people....

Anyway, the O'Neill Burke v. Harris donnybrook will bring some voters out for the primary who don't usually come out. Many of these will vote in other races... potentially even for judges. That is where peril lies for the Party (will the new voters know enough to hew to the Party line all the way down the ballot) and where opportunity lurks for everyone else.

Hispanic voters are going to be courted assiduously in 2024. Clerk of the Circuit Court Iris Martinez was dumped by the Cook County Democratic Party. Appellate Court Justice Jesse Reyes was turned away in his bid to be slated as the first Hispanic justice of the Illinois Supreme Court. They're both running. Who else will get their voters? Will the voters they bring out help other Hispanic candidates in down-ballot races? Candidates with Irish names used to have a big 'leg up' in low-profile judicial races. In recent cycles candidates with familiar Hispanic names have also enjoyed a boost. Will that boost be bigger this year than ever before?

Don't let anyone kid you: The job of a political party is to get its candidates elected. Political professionals do not want large turnouts in primaries; they're actually in favor of voter suppression -- as long as it's the other guy's voters that are being suppressed, not theirs. A quiet presidential primary should ordinarily favor the slate. But high profile countywide races will nudge the turnout needle... creating danger for some... and opportunity for others.

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Photo credit: Leffler, Warren K, photographer. Young "hippie" standing in front of a row of National Guard soldiers, across the street from the Hilton Hotel at Grant Park, at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. United States Illinois Chicago, 1968. [29 August] Photograph. https://www.loc.gov/item/2016652537/.