There's a question we'll all be asking next week. I'd like to ask it now.

Next week, after the polls have closed, and after (most of) the votes have been counted, people interested in public affairs will ask, why didn't more of our neighbors vote?

Historically, of course, both nationwide and in Illinois, midterm elections (we now call these gubernatorial elections in Illinois) draw fewer voters than presidential elections. This chart, from the U.S. Elections Project, illustrates this fact:

(The original chart, which I've linked to above, is interactive -- you can get specific turnout numbers for each election.)

In order to compare apples to apples, we will have to look at 2022 for a proper comparison with 2026. According to Ballotpedia,

The overall turnout rate of eligible voters in Illinois in the 2022 midterm general election was 45.8%. The national average for the same year was 46.2%

The City of Chicago reported a 46.39% turnout in 2022.

I don't know if the turnout this year will be higher or lower than in 2022 (although, if I had to make a bet, I'd choose the under) but, one thing I know for certain: Roughly half of all Illinois voters will stay home Tuesday. Maybe significantly more than half. (There may be -- there should be -- a higher turnout in Chicago, where millions are being burned on direct mail pieces alone in the races for Chicago's first all-elected school board. But, on the other hand, turnout in races for school boards elsewhere in Illinois is typically abysmal. So we'll just have to wait and see.)

But even if there is a bump in the Chicago turnout, a lot of us will be asking next week: WHY? Why did so many of our neighbors not vote in this election?

A lot of the answers will be along these lines:

• There were no competitive races at the top of the ballot (all the Democratic nominees were long-favored to win by comforatable, even landlide, amounts),


• In many cases, including in the case of each and every Cook County judicial vacancy, there were no contests at all, or


• The circular response: Everyone knows that voters don't get motivated for midterms.

For me, none of these answers are helpful. They don't really explain why the stay-at-home voters stayed at home. There are a few possible explanations, I suppose:

1. People who stayed at home were satisfied by the predicted results and felt no need to add their two cents, or


2. People who stayed at home were so turned off by the process, by the negative ads, or by the quality of the candidates, that they have amputated themselves from the body politic, or, perhaps


3. People who stayed at home are very much dissatisfied with the way things are, but, in light of the polling, felt that their votes would make no difference all.

Of course, I am sure that there is no one answer here. If you could get honest answers from all your non-voting neighbors, I'm sure you'd find some in each of these three categories.

But how many in each?

If there were enough people in category 3 who could put aside their discouragement, they could change the outcome of any contested election, no matter what the polls say.

If there are large numbers of discouraged voters lurking out there, I wish they'd rewatch Pixar's "A Bug's Life" some time before Tuesday.

I truly believe that all the attack ads that pollute our screens each evening -- all of the terrible, negative campaigning -- is nothing more than voter suppression. I don't want voters to be suppressed. I want to know what all the voters want, not just the ones who hold their nose and go to the polls.

Maybe all (or at least most) of the stay-at-homes are in category 1, above. Maybe they're all happy and content with how things are. I just want to know one way or the other... and the only way to know for certain is if the stay-at-homes don't stay at home. Which is why I want the "why" question asked now, and not next week.

You and I are going to vote Tuesday -- unless you've voted already. FWIW readers vote. But what about our neighbors? Why are they planning on staying home? I hope you'll ask that question now, too, while we can still find out what they really want.