This year's judicial retention election is unprecedented, with the Cook County Democratic Party dumping two judges, one of them apparently over politics.
I've been asked by a lot of people if Judge Michael P. Toomin, a well-respected judge, can lose because of the snub by the Cook County Democratic Party. The answer is yes. (The answer is also yes for Judge Mauricio Araujo, although his situation is completely different than Judge Toomin).
I mapped the results of the 2018 judge retention results for Judges Matthew Coghlan, Maura Slattery Boyle, and Lisa Ann Marino. These judges were all not recommended for retention by the Chicago Tribune, but their results were very different. Only Judge Coghlan was defeated for retention.
Marino, who was the only judge not recommended for retention by the Chicago Bar Association, "lost" (i.e., failed to achieve a 60% yes vote) in the most affluent precincts, such as Winnetka and River Forest. In other words, she lost in areas where voters read the editorial section of the Chicago Tribune. Boyle, who was opposed by the Chicago Tribune and many liberal organizations, lost basically the entire North Side of Chicago, where white liberals live in big numbers. Coghlan, who was the only judge officially opposed by the Cook County Democratic Party, lost everywhere besides the Southwest Side of Chicago and some suburban areas.
White liberal voters are fairly engaged in judicial elections and typically make their decisions without help from the Democratic Party. Boyle lost white liberal areas without the organized opposition by the party that defeated Coghlan. However, minority areas tend to vote more based on the recommendations by the party. Boyle won Black and Hispanic precincts while Coghlan lost basically every Black precinct. Coghlan did win many Hispanic precincts, especially on the Southwest Side of Chicago where he was supported by the 13th Ward, however it wasn't enough to win retention.
I believe Toomin can win certain areas that Boyle lost, like the North Shore; however, he will have trouble winning minority areas if the patterns of 2018 play into 2020. Judge Toomin will have to appeal to voters who do not read the editorial sections of the newspapers if he wants to break 60% for the election this year.
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The only thing that need concern Toomin is how much of an effort the county party will put into circulating its message. Against Coughlin the county party and all of the other party and independent progressive efforts flipped roughly 140,000 votes from yes to no, with the bulk of that coming from the county party. This year under reasonable assumptions (74% base retention approval rate, 1.4M retention votes) they’ll need to flip at least 200,000 to remove Toomin. They’ll have no other votes flipping from bars or newspapers, and at least a few votes flipping the other way from all of the negative reaction. And this time the “story” is of much less visibility and interest than two years ago, when Coghlan became news early on and the larger issue of wrongful convictions was big throughout the campaign.
So they’ll need to increase their efforts substantially. Kind of doubt they’ll expend resources doubling down on this when there are competing priorities, especially with all of the heat they’ve taken. But TP pushed hard on the pop tax even in the face of a lot of heat, so maybe she’ll follow through.
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