Monday, August 09, 2021

More numbers touted without sufficient context -- no wonder we're all confused

That's an image of a Tweet posted this morning by the Chicago Department of Public Health. Great news, right? And, just as good news is supposed to be, local media outlets, like WGN, began sharing right away.

Except...

This is the Chicago COVID-19 Dashboard as of August 7, still the latest date available as of this morning.

According to these figures 59.3% of Chicagoans have received at least one dose, not 70%, while 52.7% are fully vaccinated. However, based on an explanation on the COVID-19 Dashboard Information Page that can be accessed from the Dashboard, it appears that these values are "for the total population of Chicago." Naturally, since the total population of Chicago includes persons under 12, these numbers should be lower than the rosy figures in this morning's CDPH Tweet. And when we pull out the 12-18 age group, for whom a vaccine was only recently authorized, the 18+ numbers should be much better than the reported Dashboard figures. And so they are.

But you have to work through the definitions before anaylzing the numbers. Put things in context. Think the numbers through. The judges and lawyers who read FWIW probably do this by instinct or habit -- but the public too often only sees inconsistent, contradictory numbers. And they react with understandable skepticism. It won't count for pro bono hours, but helping friends and families reconcile inconsistent numbers like these (when, as here, they can be reconciled) can be a public service.

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