Only one retention judge in jeopardy... but how much does it matter?

Judge Shannon O'Malley's retention bid is still uncertain at this hour, but he is the only retention judge in jeopardy. All other judges on the ballot Tuesday appear to have been retained.

O'Malley is in count-every-vote territory, as he teeters perilously close to the 60% + 1 threshhold.

A couple of quick snapshots: Yesterday afternoon, O'Malley was under the mark, with 59.97% of the votes then counted, 778,061 "Yes" votes out of a total of 1,297,398 votes in re O'Malley. This afternoon, Frank Calabrese supplied updated figures, showing that O'Malley had edged up slightly, with 785,165 "Yes" votes out of a new total of 1,308,805 votes. That translates to 59.99%. But there's no rounding in retention races. Calabrese calculated that O'Malley was 118 votes down.

There are new numbers this evening. O'Malley has been above the water line in the suburban numbers right along:

But O'Malley's numbers have hovered around 55% in City returns, and these latest numbers are consistent:

The new total is 1,317,063, and O'Malley now has 790,461 "Yes" votes, translating to 60.02%.

Which, ordinarily, would have to be good news for Judge O'Malley. Granted,there are still votes to be counted. The Chicago Board of Elections tweeted out tonight that there are 91,340 uncounted ballots. I don't know the current County numbers. But the trend would appear, for the moment, to be O'Malley's friend.

But does it really matter that much? Injustice Watch has reported that Cook County Chief Judge Timothy C. Evans has referred Judges O'Malley and E. Kenneth Wright, Jr. to the Judicial Inquiry Board because of the Injustice Watch report last month, questioning whether these judges actually live in Cook County:

On Wednesday, Cook County Chief Judge Timothy Evans took the rare step of referring two judges for investigations before the Judicial Inquiry Board. We reported in October both judges claimed homeowner property tax exemptions on homes in Will County. https://t.co/qdofQITs26

— Injustice Watch (@injusticewatch) November 7, 2024

I suspect that, long before the reported referral, JIB was already keenly aware of the residency questions raised by Injustice Watch. While the JIB investigation process is confidential, and will remain confidential unless and until JIB brings charges against either judge before the Illinois Courts Commission, the Injustice Watch report itself and the subsequent revelations by bar groups scrambling to investigate this real-life October surprise, create very troubling questions about whether O'Malley or Wright are in fact eligible for judicial service in Cook County.

In other words, O'Malley could win retention... and still lose his job.

I don't know all the facts. I don't know where Judge O'Malley or Judge Wright actually lived, whatever public records may have shown. I don't know what either may try to prove, or argue, or raise. If charges are brought against either or both of them, I don't know what the Courts Commission might do.

However, under the unusual circumstances here, checking every update seems kind of beside the point. FWIW will check in on this again. But whether O'Malley stays over 60% is not necessarily the main story here.