Public Act 101-0477, signed into law last year, requires the General Assembly to “redraw the boundaries of the (Cook County) subcircuits to reflect the results of the 2020 federal decennial census.” While the final 2020 Census results are not yet available, redistricting drama is already in full swing, with Springfield Democrats likely redrawing legislative boundaries with the American Community Survey of 2019 (2019 ACS), since the 2020 Census will not be available until after the June 30 deadline set by the Illinois Constitution.
The 15 judicial subcircuit districts of Cook County were created by law in 1991, and the population patterns of Cook County have changed significantly since 1991. Using the 2019 ACS and the latest data and software, I will give a quick analysis of what the Cook County subcircuits look like today.
There is no modern map of the Cook County subcircuits available. If you search for a Cook County subcircuits map, you will likely find this image from 11 years ago. So I made a modern map of the Cook County subcircuits, here:
There are three challenges I identify in redrawing the subcircuits. First, Public Act 101-0477 requires that “the subcircuits shall be compact, contiguous, and substantially equal in population.” Currently, the subcircuits do not substantially have equal population. The current population range is 428,824 to 239,039, a difference of 189,87 people. The 8th Subcircuit has the most people with 428,824 and the 5th Subcircuit has the least with 239,039 people. The population mean of the 15 subcircuits is 346,514 and the median subcircuit is the 14th Subcircuit with 358,127 people. The 5th Subcircuit is over 44% smaller than the 8th Subcircuit, much higher than the 10% population deviation tolerated by federal courts. Karcher v. Daggett, 462 U.S. 725, 730-31 (1983); White v. Regester, 412 U.S. 755 (1973). See the graphs below on population deviation:
Second, the current subcircuits only have one majority Latino subcircuit, even though the overall population of Cook County is over a quarter Latino. The 6th Subcircuit was drawn to be a Latino district, but it is now a majority white district by voting population. The current voting population of the 6th Subcircuit is 37% Latino and 50% white. Of the 15 subcircuits, 10 subcircuits have whites as the largest voting blocks, with nine subcircuits being majority white and the 3rd Subcircuit being plurality white. There are four majority Black subcircuits. The 7th Subcircuit has seen its Black voting population diluted, but it is still a 57% Black district by voting population. There is only one majority Latino subcircuit, the 14th Subcircuit, which is 62% Latino. See the map below:
The last challenge is a political challenge. Out of 15 subcircuits, I believe there should be a subcircuit that can reliably elect Republicans. That can be achieved with a southwest subcircuit based in Orland, Palos, and Lemont Townships.
The northern subcircuits that were Republican in the 1990s are now Democratic. The 12th and 13th Subcircuits elected Democrats in 2020. Currently, running for judge in the 12th and 13th Subcircuits is very expensive because you have to run in a primary and a general election. The political trends will make the 12th and 13th subcircuits even more Democratic. However, southwest Cook County is very Republican and they should get their own subcircuit. This would allow for Republicans to become judges in Cook County without the expenses of a general election.
I am very grateful for Mr. Calabrese's willingness to provide this post to FWIW, but I must admit a bit of disagreement with his inference that it is somehow bad when voters get a choice between Democratic and Republican judicial candidates in a general election.
ReplyDeleteGranted, if it were up to me, I'd make judicial races non-partisan. I fail to see how being a "good" Democrat or a "good" Republican is a prerequisite -- or even of any assistance -- in being a good judge.
And I can't dispute Mr. Calabrese's observation that most recent 12th Subcircuit race was quite expensive. It was expensive. But I can't help thinking that voters there were well served by having a choice between two very good candidates.
Now... if I were a candidate, I would certainly want an uncontested primary and no opponent in the general. I don't think it's hypocritical, however, to note that it's better generally for voters to have choices on their general election ballot, especially because so many general election voters sit out the primaries. And there's something not quite right about our system where a candidate can eke out a bare plurality in a crowded primary field -- as in 2020 where a subcircuit candidate won with just under 21% of the Democratic Primary vote -- and then be elected in November without opposition. Election by only a tiny sliver of the eligible electorate is the very definition of undemocratic. That's not a knock on the candidate in question, who won fair and square according to the rules in place. But maybe those rules should be revisited.
Nevertheless, Mr. Calabrese is not to be criticized for envisioning a plan where no one would be expected to run against the primary winner. That was an expectation of at least some of the framers of the original subcircuit system, too, inasmuch as the unlikely coalition of Republican and minority legislators were trying to create safe havens for their own judicial candidates. Republicans did not run in the pre-subcircuit City only judicial races; Democrats did not contest suburbs-only seats. But the minority-Republican coalition that created the subcircuit system (over the protests of European-descended legislators who would best be identified with the Cook County Machine or its remnants) envisioned a system that would reward them both with more judicial opportunities. Subcircuits 3,4,10, 11, 12, 13, and 15 were expected to be Republican-majority or, at least, Republican competitive. The 9th Subcircuit was supposed to, and for a time certainly did, provide avenues for Jewish lawyers to become judges.
I would hope that the ultimate drafters of the new subcircuit maps will draw boundaries that give voters more choices in general elections, not fewer -- but I'm not holding my breath.
Frank's comments about the Southwest Suburbs isn't completely accurate. While some of those townships are more Republican leaning than others, Both Orland Township and Palos Township are still relatively competitive for the Democrats, and with the right candidate, A Democrat can certainly compete. Rupublicans may be able to win, but I do not see a scenario where a map can be drawn where Republicans are guaranteed a victory without a general election.
ReplyDeleteI don't think that there is a group of townships in the County that would give Republicans a safe district. The best they can hope for are Republican competitive judicial districts.
ReplyDeleteKill your opponents, figuratively, during the objections and run like CONAN THE BARBARIAN!
ReplyDeleteLet's put all of the 17th and 18th Wards into the 1st and 2nd Subcircuits, respectively. No reason for them to be in the 3rd Subcircuit.
ReplyDeleteAlso, Palos, Orland and Lemont combined only has about 129k voters. Not sure how you can create a Republican safe district based around that when populations are supposed to be equal in judicial subcircuits. You would have to pull into other townships that are far more democratic leaning.
ReplyDeleteHi, Frank here. I did not set out to make a Republican subcircuit, but the inevitable division of the 15th Subcircuit will create a Republican subcircuit in southwest Cook County. The 1st and 2nd Subcircuits, which lack population compared to others, need to expand into Rich and Bloom townships in order to gain population and maintain their Black supermajorities.
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ReplyDeleteA subcircuit in the southwestern portion of Cook County that is roughly south of 87th Street and West of Cicero is 346,500 people. This subcircuit would also go into Bremen and Worth Townships, but would completely cover Orland, Palos, and Lemont. That is the rough boundaries of a potential southwest Cook subcircuit I am talking about. It geographically makes sense it allows the 1st and 2nd subcircuits, and the 5th subcircuit by extension, to absorb more Black population in the south suburbs.
ReplyDeleteWhy can't Cook County have a system where judges are chosen by merit and ability, not politics. I don't think there is a single judge in Cook County that didn't have a stamp of approval by Ed Burke or Mike Madigan, and their approval had nothing to do with the person's ability to be a judge. A judge shouldn't be put on the bench because, for example, she (or he) is married to a real estate lawyer who gave Burke or Madigan's law firms a lot of real estate tax business or donated a lot of money to the cook county democratic party. A person couldn't even be elected as an associate judge by the elected circuit judges without a letter from Ed Burke. The Cook County Judiciary is consistently rated as one of the worst, if not the worst in the country,(https://cookcountyrecord.com/stories/513717027-survey-says-illinois-has-worst-legal-system-in-u-s-chicago-courts-least-fair) but nothing is done to change the system that chooses that judiciary. This should be embarrassing and cause an uproar among citizens and the legal community, but for some reason it doesn't. People are afraid to speak up for fear of being slapped down or losing their license to practice. A merit selection system would not be that hard to develop, and I don't think that there is anything in the Illinois constitution that would prevent it being adopted. Certainly there can't be a vested interest in having the worst judiciary in the nation? If there is then perhaps it means there is a deeper problem in cook county that needs to be addressed.
ReplyDeleteThere’s no path to a reliably Republican subcircuit in the SW suburbs. Lemont/Orland/Palos do lean slightly Republican, but their population is only half that of a proper subcircuit, and their only three contiguous neighbors all lean farther in the opposite direction.
ReplyDeleteFor an example, the most recent contest for state treasurer--a good proxy for a judicial contest (most voters know nothing about the candidates, and voting is almost entirely based on party). L/O/P voted 54% for the Republican or Libertarian candidate in 2018. Lyons to the north voted 57% Democrat, and Worth and Bremen to the east voted 64% Democrat. Even with aggressive gerrymandering that picks off the few neighboring Republican-majority precincts, it still wouldn’t lead to a full subcircuit that a Republican candidate would consider safe.
Fair enough, it’s possible to produce something more favorable to Republicans than currently exists there, and maybe more sustainably competitive in the future than anywhere else in the county, depending on what happens in the NW suburbs. But that’s all.
We have Merit Selection in Cook County. It's called the Associate Judge Short List. Tim Evans selects two of each tribal group and then the Irish Circuit Judges select three "safe" candidates from the "diverse" pool and the remaining majority slots go to their former State's Attorney or Attorney General or CTA or Corporation Counsel buddies.
ReplyDeleteTammy Duckworth just called and she is demanding an Asian subcircuit so that we can combat all of the Asian Hate. Still no word about the Adam Toledo shooting or why the CPD still shoots Black men in the back with impunity or how Tim Evans hasn't reopened the courts for genuine jury trials.
ReplyDelete#dumpevans2022because20yearsofbeingnicebutuselessisenough
If a Republican wants to become a judge, then move to Texas. Or change your last name to O'Brien and run countywide. Otherwise, F-off.
ReplyDeleteThe 7th Subcircuit has large swathes of vacant lots. If Chris Welch has any true power, he will make certain to draw a map that ensures his wife a sold victory in March 2022.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of the 7th Subcircuit, some interesting people have decided to move into what is currently the 7th Subcircuit. I hope they are all still in the 7th subcircuit once the map is finished. Some interesting political "dynasties" might be teeing up against each other come September!
ReplyDeleteSincerely,
All Hail The Clash of the Titans!
Eye spy a fleet of moving trucks headed to the 1st Sub.
ReplyDelete