Those are low turnout figures, to be sure. But only about 24% of registered voters came out in the City in the 2012 primary -- and only about 16% in 2014.
So there have been much lower turnouts.
On the other hand, my polling place was practically a ghost town yesterday.
Perhaps many voted early? That's the current story, and I've seen lots of anecdotal evidence, at least, to bolster the theory.
The conventional wisdom is that low-turnout primaries favor the political establishment, haves over have-nots.
And there's evidence for this proposition in some of yesterday's results. Frank Avila, dumped by the Cook County Democratic Party in his bid to remain a Commissioner of the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District, was ousted yesterday, despite a favorable ballot placement (third on the ballot) and despite the decidedly unfavorable ballot placement of the slated candidates. Yet M. Cameron "Cam" Davis, Kimberly Neely Dubuclet, and Eira L. Corral Sepúlveda, down toward the bottom, but not at the end of, a long list of candidates, all outpolled Avila.
And the county Party did carry the day for State's Attorney Kim Foxx in perhaps the highest profile race on yesterday's ballot.
On the other hand, the Party could not carry Abdelnasser Rashid to victory in the race for the 1st District Board of Review -- nor could it win the day for Michael M. Cabonargi over State Sen. Iris Y. Martinez in a race for Clerk of the Circuit Court that can only be considered "high profile" among practicing attorneys.
The Cook County Democratic Party got 10 of 15 candidates elected in contested judicial primaries, including the retention of Justice P. Scott Neville, Jr. on the Supreme Court -- a .667 batting average, as I noted last night -- but, in the abysmal turnout year of 2014, the Cook County Democratic Party delivered victory to six of its eight candidates on the judicial slate. (I still think the real service the Party rendered to judicial hopefuls in 2014 was clearing the field for so many, so that there were an unusually large number of uncontested races.)
Was it the Irish Massacre predicted by so many of my faithful trolls?
Cristin Keely McDonald Duffy and Kerrie Maloney Laytin arguably cancelled each other out, clearing a path to victory for Tiesha L. Smith in the race for the countywide Bellows vacancy.
There's certainly an argument to be made that being an Irish male is no longer any boost at the polls (*sigh*). Michael O'Malley did not fare well in his race (for the McCarthy vacancy) against Judge Teresa Molina. Former Judge John O'Meara lost decisively to Laura Ayala-Gonzalez in the race for the Ford vacancy. Dan Walsh was not much of a factor in the race for the countywide Murphy Gorman vacancy.
In the race for the Funderburk vacancy, Daniel L. Collins ran against three women, two with Irish surnames -- supposedly a sure winning strategy, at least if you read the comments here -- which actual voters evidently did not. In that race, Jacqueline Marie Griffin and Mary Therese Quinn arguably cancelled each other out, clearing the way for Associate Judge Celestia L. Mays to reclaim her full circuit judgeship.
And in the race for the Larsen vacancy, Suzanne Therese McEneely and Megan Kathleen Mulay may also have cancelled each other out, assuring victory for Judge Levander "Van" Smith, Jr.
Jennifer Patricia Callahan's bid for the Mason vacancy might have been hampered by Bonnie Carol McGrath's presence on the ballot. Slated candidate Chris Stacey had only a slim margin over Callahan.
On the other hand, Kelly Marie McCarthy won her race for the Coghlan vacancy even though one of her three opponents was Elizabeth "Beth" Ryan. Elizabeth Anne Walsh won her race for the O'Brien vacancy and Lorraine Mary Murphy won her race for the Roti vacancy. And, while they weren't reliant on green and white billboards, Maura McMahon Zeller and Jill Rose Quinn both prevailed in their races for the C. Sheehan and K. Sheehan vacancies, respectively.
But I submit that it is not Irish names per se that matter anyway, but familiar ones. Think about the LaRouchie takeover of the Democratic statewide ticket in 1986, when Janice Hart beat Aurie Pucinski for the Democratic nomination for Secretary of State and Mark Fairchild beat George Sangmeister for the nomination for Lieutenant Governor.
Women continue to do better than men in judicial races. Thus, in a race between candidates with familiar-sounding surnames, Judge Sharon O. Johnson bested Justice John Griffin. This is not to ignore the voters who came out specifically to support either candidate, and surely that was the majority of voters in this race. But those who braved the COVID-19 scare to specifically support candidates in other races, and had no favorites in this one, would have favored Johnson over Griffin.
And I further submit that we need to adjust our thinking to admit that the universe of 'familiar sounding' (and therefore 'good' ballot names) now includes familiar Hispanic surnames. Martinez. Gonzalez. Ramos.
The trolls will want to turn the race for the Appellate Court Neville, Jr. vacancy into a story of Maureen Patricia O'Leary cancelling out Judge Carolyn J. Gallagher. However, Judge Sandra G. Ramos did better than either of them in City and suburbs both. Justice Michael B. Hyman had the official support of the Cook County Democratic Party and the Tribune endorsement, two benefits at least that Collins did not have in his quest for the Funderburk Circuit Court seat.
Dr. Klumpp may offer quantification of these factors for this election at some point, but the factors are evident to even my untrained eye.
Turnout was bad generally, but worse in some places than others.
There is a well-recognized phenomenon of ballot dropoff. In a given election, if 100,000 take a ballot, maybe only 80,000 or 85,000 will see it through clear to the end. When all the numbers are crunched, I expect that more people will have voted in the State's Attorney's race than in any of the judicial contests. More people will have voted for the Supreme Court vacancy than for their respective subcircuit candidates (if any).
But let's look at voting figures in the subcircuits.
The lines have not been redrawn in the Cook County subcircuits since they were set up in 1990. (They will be redrawn after the pending Census.) So populations have shifted, arguably, as well as demographics. Not all subcircuits are created equal, at least not any longer.
But in the all-suburban 12th Subcircuit, there were a total of 52,069 votes cast in the Democratic primary, and another 10,387 in the Republican primary. Only 38,733 made it all the way down the Democratic ballot to the Hanlon vacancy. We need that number for an apples-to-apples comparison because the City of Chicago report does not tell us how many ballots were taken in any given subcircuit; it just reports the votes tabulated in each subcircuit race.
In the all-Chicago 8th Subcircuit, some 52,195 voters made their choices known in the race for the contested Fleming vacancy. Just under 39,000 voters made it to the bottom of the ballot in the all-Chicago 6th Subcircuit (38,680 voting in the Nega vacancy, 38,990 voting in Pantle vacancy).
But in the 14th Subcircuit, which is mostly in the City but has some suburban precincts, fewer than 29,000 voters made it to the subcircuit races (28,415 votes case in the race for the Bertucci vacancy, 28,614 in the race for the Lacy vacancy).
In my home subcircuit, the 10th, a largely City subcircuit which also stretches into the suburbs, 47,319 voters made it to the McGing vacancy, and 45,037 voters made it all the way to the O'Brien vacancy.
The one thing I'm sure of, but don't know how to prove, is that, but for the COVID-19 disruption, there would have been more voters yesterday and some results would likely have been different.
Dealing with a family illness right now but yes, in the next couple of weeks I will do the usual analysis and write it up for you.
ReplyDeleteBe safe and well, Albert.
ReplyDeleteWhen tested the party failed.
ReplyDeleteTurnout was miserably low.
Blacks voted for blacks
women voted for women.