For What It's Worth

Would be interesting to know more about this one—-...

2012-05-22T11:03:41.327-05:00

Would be interesting to know more about this one—-who the other candidates were (or weren’t) and who backed him. Coming so soon after the withdrawals of all of Degnan’s opponents, it can’t help but raise some eyebrows, fairly or unfairly.

Only 60 filed? This will be the shortest retentio...

2012-05-16T11:30:00.272-05:00

Only 60 filed? This will be the shortest retention ballot since 1996.

Based upon what has happened with the retention ba...

2012-05-16T09:51:12.173-05:00

Based upon what has happened with the retention ballot over the past 20 years, Judge Brim is likely to be retained.

The limited analysis of single-subcircuit voting t...

2012-03-31T14:24:24.639-05:00

The limited analysis of single-subcircuit voting that I've been able to do (limited by small data sets) found that slating is most powerful in the 3rd. You can see why from these numbers. Wards 13, 18, 19 and 23 are all in the 3rd, and so is part of 14.

David, I will do the additional ciphering and repo...

2012-03-30T19:01:47.966-05:00

David, I will do the additional ciphering and report.

I guess we will all agree that palm cards for your...

2012-03-30T17:46:03.006-05:00

I guess we will all agree that palm cards for your candidate are better than no palm cards, but in response to Mary's comment, we should put this issue in perspective. Let's take the Cole vacancy in the 8th. It is true that Ehrlich (endorsed by 43d Ward) did significantly better than his average (45%/35%). However, Ehrlich also had palm cards in 48, where he "underperformed" (32%/35%). As I've previously noted, Kaplan also had palm cards in 48, and his numbers were not better to a statistically significant extent. I presume Ehrlich's cards were the same in both Wards. Did the Kaplan cards neutralize the Ehrlich cards' like lead shielding Superman from kryptonite? Given the lack of 8th Subcircuit slating in that race and different emphases ward to ward (precinct to precinct?), the fact that Ehrlich convincingly carried all of the 5 biggest voting wards (42,43,44, 46, 48) tends to demonstrate that the Trib endorsement - the common factor in all wards - was the most significant. Were voters in the 48th Ward influenced by the Kaplan cards? Sure, I'll bet some were, but not nearly enough even within that Ward.

As far as whether palm cards "matter," the only thing that matters in elections is winning. There are no silver medals. For example, the 43d Ward endorsed James Shapiro in the Chiola vacancy. It's true that he performed markedly better in 43 (40% in 43d/33% overall). It's also true that he still lost the 43d Ward 48% to 40%. So I'll tip my hat to the palm card effect there for Shapiro if you allow as how the Trib was more "influential." Did the 43d's efforts "matter" as Mary says? By definition, since Shapiro lost the 43d Ward, they didn't matter. I think what we saw in the 8th was across the board in all judicial races, the Trib was more influential than the party efforts. Those voters find the Trib more persuasive.

In the 9th, where the DPOE (Evanston) is more effective, the Trib endorsement was far less influential - were some influenced? Absolutely. But not nearly enough. The Trib endorsed candidates lost both races by wide margins.

In the final analysis, EVERYTHING matters if we are talking about adding votes. Just as we'd all agree that candidates getting the top ballot line add a certain number of votes, we must agree that it didn't really "matter" in the 8th or 9th Subcircuit - the candidate with top ballot line lost 4 of 5 contested races. The calculus shifts so widely with higher/lower turnout, factors that matter one year can become irrelevant next time.

Jack, Unless you use the ratio of the number of r...

2012-03-30T17:31:42.503-05:00

Jack,

Unless you use the ratio of the number of registered voters to the number actual voters voting versus raw number of voters per ward, then you will get a significant difference.

David Ormsby

Hate to bust your bubble, but...In three of the pr...

2012-03-30T11:00:37.553-05:00

Hate to bust your bubble, but...In three of the previous four primaries, Democratic voter participation in the judicial contests was between 73 and 77 percent (median of all contests each year). This year it was 78 percent. Yes, dropoff has been decreasing over the decades, but this was not an exceptional election compared to other recent primaries.

The palm-card stories are very useful; thanks for sharing them.

To second this observation: The 43rd Ward Democra...

2012-03-30T10:46:21.042-05:00

To second this observation: The 43rd Ward Democrats also endorsed in the primary races, and did palm cards. 57% of the candidates we endorsed in contested races won, and in every race, win or lose, the candidate we endorsed did better (by percentage) in 43 than the overall result. This stuff matters.

Goodness, so much to deal with here. Will send yo...

2012-03-29T12:58:18.248-05:00

Goodness, so much to deal with here. Will send you stuff next week in pieces and you can post whatever you like.

Generally speaking, you'd expect that certain things would change predictably with changes in turnout. But these tend to be smaller, more incremental shifts and are not always clearly seen in the results. Larger characteristics that are unique to each primary (things the math doesn't handle as well) can overwhelm them.

"Controlled" probably is too strong a wo...

2012-03-29T09:30:13.136-05:00

"Controlled" probably is too strong a word -- especially because, in this post-Shakman world, no one would ever take heat at their City job for not even bothering to vote, right? And everyone votes in primaries because people realize it is one of the few civic duties we all have, right? And then I wake up.

Whether 'controlled' or 'influenced,' the few actual voters on the 20th had an apparent sense of purpose: They came out to vote for specific people. Avy Meyers said there was unusually little dropoff between the total number of votes cast and the votes cast in judicial races, suggesting that most people came into the polling place with an intent to vote for judges.

Albert, this should minimize the effect of being first on the ballot -- right? After all, two of the three countywide slated candidates who did not win were first on the ballot. And, Michael, perhaps the Tribune endorsement was stronger in the 8th Subcircuit Cole vacancy because there was no slated candidate in that race?

My guess is that the 'bump' for Irish surnames & first ballot lines increases proportionate to turnout, while the 'bump' for slating decreases as turnout increases. (Albert, did that sound at least a little mathematical?)

Michael, you said Judge Kaplan was on the palm cards in 48 -- well, he did finish second in that ward (to Ehrlich), and while that was only his third highest percentage vote, he got his second highest number of votes in 48.

I plan to talk about palm cards in my next post.

But, meanwhile, Michael, on advertising you're right: I don't generally listen to sports radio except when I drive -- and I usually take the train. I did hear Judge McGing's commercials -- and also quite a few for Brigid Mary Hayes -- and Jesse White's commercials for Justice Cunningham -- but I think the radio audience is just too fractured for campaign commercials to have an impact. I suspect the audience (and the pool of likely primary voters) is much larger for the TV newscasts -- even in this age of 500 cable channels.

I really appreciate both of your perceptive comments.

Here's a few observations on your piece. I gen...

2012-03-28T23:52:32.545-05:00

Here's a few observations on your piece. I generally agree with your conclusions, especially if we can loosely interpret Russ Stewart's term "controlled voters" to "influenced voters," a less antiquated view of voting for judicial candidates to get garbage cans or jobs. In some subcircuits, the Tribune was much more influential than party slating.

In the 8th, all 3 contested races were won by the candidate endorsed by the Trib. This isn't coincidental - Trib endorsements are always a big factor in the Lakefront, even more so given the decline (entropy?) of IVI-IPO. So when the turnout is this bad, a higher % of folks clutching the Trib list will be more decisive; when people are more motivated to vote on other races, and then see a dozen judicial races populated by people they've never heard of, the more typical patterns of ethnic/gender preferences are more decisive.

For example, staying in the 8th, in prior years Celia Gamrath's win would be attributed to being the only female against 3 men. Harder to rely on that when the same subcircuit failed to elect Lainie Berger as the only female against 5 men. Attributable to "watering down" the Jewish ethnic vote with 3 other apparently Jewish candidates? Hard to make that case given James Shapiro's loss as the only apparently Jewish candidate (Osran is also Jewish, but nobody knew) against 3 apparently non-Jewish candidates.

As to the party slating influence on the Lakefront, setting aside the traditionally prickly independence in much of that turf, my observations working the Senn HS precinct gave me no reason to suspect the party endorsements of Judges Gubin or Gamrath were attributable to their wins. In fact, the 48th Ward palm card (for the entire slate) was augmented by a separate card for Judge Kaplan, endorsed in 48. No apparent effect on his totals in the 48th Ward, very comparable to his overall totals elsewhere in the District. But the Trib endorsement of Ehrlich was just as decisive in 48.

Compare the 2 races in the 9th Subcircuit with the 3 races in 8. The Tribune endorsements of Judges Bender & Trew failed to prevent either from losing decisively (Bender approx 60/40; Trew finished 3d - both had top ballot line). The difference in 9 is the wide gap between the effectiveness of the Dem Party of Evanston and anything else in the district. But we're not talking about city jobs, precinct captain favors, etc. in either 8 or 9. Although Abbey Romanek was the "slated" candidate in the Epstein vacancy, her repeated failure to keep the Evanston coalition together led to defeat by Evanstonians Kull (2010) & Axelrood (2012) who derived significant support from Evanston political figures.

Advertising: Jack, obviously you weren't listening to much sports radio. The Kubalanza Ditka ads and non-Ditka-centric ads for Appellate Court candidate James McGing were running in heavy rotation on WSCR mornings for 2 weeks before the primary. If radio/TV advertising is as effective as suggested, it should have worked for candidates other than Justice Theis. McGing's radio ads were superb. I suspect the mountain of Personal Pac mailings suggesting "right to choose" may be at risk if Theis lost had an impact, but since the combination of Trib & slating worked all over Countywide races, it would have worked just as well for Justice Theis without TV ads.

At the end of the day, it's all about the pitifully low turnout, allowing the "influenced voters" to be more decisive than the norm.

The notion of “controlled voters” in anything near...

2012-03-28T12:43:43.573-05:00

The notion of “controlled voters” in anything near those kinds of numbers is completely unrealistic. The value of party slating in judicial contests over the years is nowhere near high enough to support the idea that hundreds of thousands of people are trying to curry favor or otherwise fervently support a party. Not even close.

Also, remember that turnout was also low in our previous primary, in 2010, and yet the value of slating in the judicial contests was shockingly low—less than 30,000 votes countywide. If voters don’t like what they see at the top of the ticket, or if the electorate is in an angry mood, the slate will suffer for it. Again, rebutting the notion of hundreds of thousands of “controlled voters.”

Will have some statistical analysis of the 2012 results for you next week.

Congratulations on your victory. L. Robert Artoe

2012-03-28T12:18:11.986-05:00

Congratulations on your victory. L. Robert Artoe

I can confirm that a PAC that formed on March 1, c...

2012-03-23T10:59:05.706-05:00

I can confirm that a PAC that formed on March 1, called the Judicial Integrity Project sent out three negative mailers and 3 negative robo calls just targeting me which focused on my negative ratings with the CBA.

http://www.elections.il.gov/CampaignDisclosure/CDPdfViewer.aspx?FiledDocID=457879&DocType=Image

Thank you, Mr. Campbell, for pointing out my error...

2012-03-21T07:02:27.751-05:00

Thank you, Mr. Campbell, for pointing out my errors, which I've corrected. It was late and, in my day, I've typed "Wheaton" far more than I've typed "Wheatley."

I apologize.

And foto was the only one found qualified by the ...

2012-03-20T23:39:07.225-05:00

And foto was the only one found qualified by the bar associations. This stinks.

Just to be clear: Wheatley and Wheaton are the sam...

2012-03-20T23:25:17.649-05:00

Just to be clear: Wheatley and Wheaton are the same. Judge Wheatley and Lewis are the two front runners with about a difference of 300 votes.

Just to be clear: Wheatley and Wheaton are the sam...

2012-03-20T23:22:47.486-05:00

Just to be clear: Wheatley and Wheaton are the same. Judge Wheatley and Lewis are the front runners off by about 300 votes.

I'd like to know too, Allie--can you tell us w...

2012-03-20T11:49:29.200-05:00

I'd like to know too, Allie--can you tell us who's sending them? The pro-choice PAC sent exactly three fliers on the Supreme Court contest; maybe this is the same kind of thing.

I have a long, angry rant about this that I'll...

2012-03-20T11:46:34.041-05:00

I have a long, angry rant about this that I'll try to detoxify and write down...if I don't write it for some publication then I'll send it to you. Basically a thought-experiment about what empirically will happen if you actually hold nonpartisan elections, compared to what some of the idealists believe will happen.

P.S. Hey, sounds like you've got a fan out there!

Whether it be an elective system (partisan or non-...

2012-03-19T17:56:23.462-05:00

Whether it be an elective system (partisan or non-partisan) or appointive system or some blending of the two, thankfully Mr. Leyhane, your chances of ever becoming a judge in Chicago are slim to none.

Albert -- if your objection is that nonpartisan ju...

2012-03-19T15:59:34.775-05:00

Albert -- if your objection is that nonpartisan judicial elections would not necessarily provide better judges, I'd be inclined to agree. We went with nonpartisan elections for Chicago aldermen a while back, and aldermen have gotten into trouble since, just like they got into trouble before. I don't know how we'd prove whether partisan vs. non-partisan elections provided better judges unless we could (somehow) run elections both ways.

On the other hand, judicial elections in Cook County (and many downstate counties, too, apparently) are effectively over tomorrow. No one bothers to file for vacancies in the party relegated to the permanent minority status in Cook or any other county because it amounts to a futile gesture. Nobody likes making futile gestures. Voters who fail to vote in the majority party primary, therefore, are effectively disenfranchised. I don't suggest that this amounts to a constitutional violation or a Voting Rights Act issue -- someone who specializes in these rarified areas would have to address that -- but it does set my fairness meter buzzing, just a bit.

In previous comments on this, you've invoked one of the fundamental principles of the Universe, namely, the Law of Unintended Consequences. Pat Quinn thought he was saving money with the legislative cutback amendment many years ago, back when he was just a gadfly, but now....

But serious consideration is still the best defense against the worst unintended consequences. The Devil truly is in the details, sometimes, anyway.

With the understanding that we can not guarantee better judges by a nonpartisan primary, what other objections, problems, concerns, etc. are seen here?

Allie... are these from a PAC or from someone else...

2012-03-19T15:41:59.587-05:00

Allie... are these from a PAC or from someone else's campaign? If from a PAC, which one? The mailers should have language on it that identifies the person or organization responsible for the mailer.

2012-03-19T15:07:32.489-05:00

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